This April, the cover will be dedicated to the score of «A Song of Our Warming Planet», a work for cello whose purpose is to raise awareness about climate change. Its author, Daniel Crawford, was inspired by measurements of the average annual temperature of the planet carried out by NASA. This technique was called «data sonification». Now that spring has arrived, it's a good time to talk about global warming.
A Song of Our Warming Planet
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| Score from https://ensia.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/video_warming_planet_music_score.pdf | Animation by https://photofunia.com/ |
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Like roast chickens
Spring has arrived and many of us have commented that we have felt the change of season during the first days of March, however, how real are our perceptions in relation to the temperature estimates for spring and summer? The World Meteorological Organization considers the return of El Niño with a 55 percent probability at the beginning of the second half of the year, which can increase the temperature with respect to the three previous years with the presence of La Niña, so our perceptions could be accurate.
However, the most outrageous rise that could occur in any year from 2023 to 2026 would be that fearful 1.5°C above “the pre-industrial age” and the chance of this happening is 50:50. A completely alarming fact. Let us quickly recall that these measurements are made considering a period of 30 base years (1951-1980) in which the global average temperature is considered "normal" and from this the weighted indicator is built (Figure 1). 2023 will probably not be the warmest year of the period, reaching the unfortunate 1.5°, but it will pave the way for higher temperatures in the coming years.
Figure 1. Global Temperature
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| Source: Image from NASA Earth Observatory |
If the temperature increases by 1.5°C during the next 3 years, a set of 7 dynamic vegetation models (IPCC, 2018) shows the places that will present a severe affectation of natural vegetation (including forests). The areas colored in dark red (Figure 2) will be those where the greatest damage to ecosystems will occur.
Figure 2. Impacts of 1.5°C of Global Warming on natural vegetation
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| Source: Image from IPCC, 2018 Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C |
If immediate measures are not taken against global warming, imbalances in agriculture, fires and storms will increase; Glaciers will melt, sea levels will rise, aquifers will dwindle, and there will be a shortage of fresh water. The internal displacement of the population will increase up to 10 times in those most affected places. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has already estimated that the climate has already changed since 1950 and will continue to change for three generations.
Figure 3. Impact on three generations
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| Source: Image from AR6 Synthesis Report Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2023 |
All indications point to 2023 being a warmer year. Perhaps there will be more musical compositions about global warming, most likely... I hope we don't turn into roast chickens...
References
- IPCC (2018) Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press. Available on https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/
- NASA Earth Observatory World of Change: Global Temperatures. Available on https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/global-temperatures
- World Meteorological Organization (March 1st, 2023) WMO Update: El Niño may return. Available on https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-update-el-ni%C3%B1o-may-return
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